We know the qualifiers for four of our continental championships, and we just have two to go. Today, we're seeing how qualification pans out in North America.
In the qualifying updates in Africa & Asia, there was a lot to pack into one episode, but it kinda suits North America, where the format is that every team is one big group anyway:
In the qualifying updates in Africa & Asia, there was a lot to pack into one episode, but it kinda suits North America, where the format is that every team is one big group anyway:
This is the 'Swiss model' that the UEFA Champions League is controversially switching to soon. The way it works here is that the 40 North American teams are split into 10 'bands', based on their DWC ranking:
And each side will play one team from each band. In theory, this can actually be beneficial for lower-ranked teams - e.g. USA could be drawn to play the 10 teams in the 4th column, and so could Bahamas. By contrast, in Europe for example, the top 9 ranked teams won't play each other, and neither will the bottom 9 ranked teams - which benefits the better teams as they have an inherently easier schedule.
The flip side is that the one big group gives the bigger sides much more leeway - e.g. USA missed out in a small group in 2019 because they took 7 points from 6 games against Canada, Guadeloupe and El Salvador - in this system they would have plenty of games against much lower-ranked sides to claw that back, and the law of averages will be on their side.
The schedule has been designed to leave the 'closest' matches towards the end - i.e. the ones where teams play those closest to them in the ranking. It means everyone has a chance to move up/down the table in the final couple of games. So let's see how the early matches went!
Round 1 - 7
The teams in bands 2 & 3 faced each other in the opening round, with the most eye-catching result being Panama thrashing Nicaragua 6-0. But the most astonishing result came in the next round when USA travelled to Bones Park to face St Lucia. The island nation flew into a 2-0 lead in the opening 10 minutes, and despite USA pulling one back, fell to a remarkable loss. For context, USA won all 7 games in qualifying last year, and then all 6 games in the North American Championship to lift the crown.
There were teams who went through the first 7 games with a perfect record, namely Mexico, Guatemala, Canada and Jamaica, with Mexico in particular looking deadly, winning games by an average margin of nearly 5 goals.
The surprise package proved to be Grenada, who signalled their intent with an early defeat of Panama and later added the scalps of Haiti and French Guiana - all qualifiers for last year's event. Bonaire and Barbados, ranked similarly to Grenada, also fought their way into the qualification mix.
The flip side is that the one big group gives the bigger sides much more leeway - e.g. USA missed out in a small group in 2019 because they took 7 points from 6 games against Canada, Guadeloupe and El Salvador - in this system they would have plenty of games against much lower-ranked sides to claw that back, and the law of averages will be on their side.
The schedule has been designed to leave the 'closest' matches towards the end - i.e. the ones where teams play those closest to them in the ranking. It means everyone has a chance to move up/down the table in the final couple of games. So let's see how the early matches went!
Round 1 - 7
The teams in bands 2 & 3 faced each other in the opening round, with the most eye-catching result being Panama thrashing Nicaragua 6-0. But the most astonishing result came in the next round when USA travelled to Bones Park to face St Lucia. The island nation flew into a 2-0 lead in the opening 10 minutes, and despite USA pulling one back, fell to a remarkable loss. For context, USA won all 7 games in qualifying last year, and then all 6 games in the North American Championship to lift the crown.
There were teams who went through the first 7 games with a perfect record, namely Mexico, Guatemala, Canada and Jamaica, with Mexico in particular looking deadly, winning games by an average margin of nearly 5 goals.
The surprise package proved to be Grenada, who signalled their intent with an early defeat of Panama and later added the scalps of Haiti and French Guiana - all qualifiers for last year's event. Bonaire and Barbados, ranked similarly to Grenada, also fought their way into the qualification mix.
So this is how things stand after 7 of 10 rounds of matches:
Round 8
If anyone thought Grenada were going away, they proved them wrong with a stylish 3-0 win over El Salvador. Mexico, Canada and Jamaica kept their perfect records, but Guatemala finally dropped points with a 2-2 draw against Antigua & Barbuda.
That result is good on paper for Antigua & Barbuda, but with the majority of teams around them winning, it left them clinging onto 16th spot on goal difference. Bonaire and Barbados fell to unsurprising defeats against Mexico and USA, which allowed Cuba, Martinique and Trinidad & Tobago to get closer to qualification with wins.
If anyone thought Grenada were going away, they proved them wrong with a stylish 3-0 win over El Salvador. Mexico, Canada and Jamaica kept their perfect records, but Guatemala finally dropped points with a 2-2 draw against Antigua & Barbuda.
That result is good on paper for Antigua & Barbuda, but with the majority of teams around them winning, it left them clinging onto 16th spot on goal difference. Bonaire and Barbados fell to unsurprising defeats against Mexico and USA, which allowed Cuba, Martinique and Trinidad & Tobago to get closer to qualification with wins.
Round 9
So now nearly everyone is facing a team from a band one away from them - e.g. Bands 1 & 2 facing off. This lead to Mexico taking on Jamaica, both on 100%. And Mexico resoundingly triumphed 7-0, a hat trick for Florian Thauvin. Canada kept the pace with a 2-0 win over Panama. USA, meanwhile, dropped another two points as Honduras held them to a 0-0 draw.
After narrowly missing out on a championship debut last year, Puerto Rico confirmed their qualification with a 4-2 win over Haiti - knocking their higher-ranked opponents in the process. Wins for El Salvador and Dominican Republic also confirmed their progression.
Below them, Martinique beat Antigua & Barbuda 1-0 to replace them in the play-off spots, and Bonaire overhauled Curacao by beating Anguilla, with Curacao losing to Dominican Republic.
So now nearly everyone is facing a team from a band one away from them - e.g. Bands 1 & 2 facing off. This lead to Mexico taking on Jamaica, both on 100%. And Mexico resoundingly triumphed 7-0, a hat trick for Florian Thauvin. Canada kept the pace with a 2-0 win over Panama. USA, meanwhile, dropped another two points as Honduras held them to a 0-0 draw.
After narrowly missing out on a championship debut last year, Puerto Rico confirmed their qualification with a 4-2 win over Haiti - knocking their higher-ranked opponents in the process. Wins for El Salvador and Dominican Republic also confirmed their progression.
Below them, Martinique beat Antigua & Barbuda 1-0 to replace them in the play-off spots, and Bonaire overhauled Curacao by beating Anguilla, with Curacao losing to Dominican Republic.
This is how things stand with one game to go - there are effectively three places up for grabs for the 11 teams from Nicaragua to Cuba:
Round 10
This is the round where everyone plays someone from the same band as them, so anything is very much possible.
And at the top we had a decider, as Mexico and Canada met. Thauvin was on target again as Mexico triumphed 2-0 for a perfect run. Elsewhere, USA finished with a win over Costa Rica and Grenada easily beat Anguilla to finish level with the Americans. At the very bottom the only side without a point - Cayman Islands - overcame Montserrat to finish with something.
But anyway, to the fight for 13th-16th...
Nicaragua slumped to a 3-0 loss against El Salvador, whilst Martinique drew 1-1 away to Dominican Republic. This meant Bonaire could qualify with a win, and two late goals lead to a dramatic 3-2 victory over Aruba and an unlikely qualification!
It also meant that the threshold for qualification is at least 16 points, meaning only the teams in the second column above could qualify, with two places still available. Trinidad & Tobago were best-placed, but failed to make it as they were held to a 0-0 draw with Guadeloupe.
Barbados, who have bubbled just out of the qualification spots all campaign, did take their chance, Shackiel Henry's goal enough for a 1-0 win over Dominica. This sees them through, and Nicaragua out, a big upset!
The two remaining teams were Antigua & Barbuda and Curacao, who just so happened to be playing each other. Curacao needed any win, whilst Antigua & Barbuda needed to win by two clear goals - anything else and Martinique would progress. After a scoreless first half Antigua & Barbuda notched twice in three minutes to get a foot in the door, only for Curacao to pull one back. It meant every option was still possible going into the final minutes, and it was Antigua & Barbuda who got what they needed, Antonio Joseph the hero as he sealed a 3-1 win and qualification! They pip Martinique by the narrowest of margins - goals scored.
This is the round where everyone plays someone from the same band as them, so anything is very much possible.
And at the top we had a decider, as Mexico and Canada met. Thauvin was on target again as Mexico triumphed 2-0 for a perfect run. Elsewhere, USA finished with a win over Costa Rica and Grenada easily beat Anguilla to finish level with the Americans. At the very bottom the only side without a point - Cayman Islands - overcame Montserrat to finish with something.
But anyway, to the fight for 13th-16th...
Nicaragua slumped to a 3-0 loss against El Salvador, whilst Martinique drew 1-1 away to Dominican Republic. This meant Bonaire could qualify with a win, and two late goals lead to a dramatic 3-2 victory over Aruba and an unlikely qualification!
It also meant that the threshold for qualification is at least 16 points, meaning only the teams in the second column above could qualify, with two places still available. Trinidad & Tobago were best-placed, but failed to make it as they were held to a 0-0 draw with Guadeloupe.
Barbados, who have bubbled just out of the qualification spots all campaign, did take their chance, Shackiel Henry's goal enough for a 1-0 win over Dominica. This sees them through, and Nicaragua out, a big upset!
The two remaining teams were Antigua & Barbuda and Curacao, who just so happened to be playing each other. Curacao needed any win, whilst Antigua & Barbuda needed to win by two clear goals - anything else and Martinique would progress. After a scoreless first half Antigua & Barbuda notched twice in three minutes to get a foot in the door, only for Curacao to pull one back. It meant every option was still possible going into the final minutes, and it was Antigua & Barbuda who got what they needed, Antonio Joseph the hero as he sealed a 3-1 win and qualification! They pip Martinique by the narrowest of margins - goals scored.
Confirmation of the final table:
So we have our 16 qualifiers, with a few surprises involved! Full credit to Grenada, Bonaire and Barbados in particular, with Nicaragua and Trinidad & Tobago the biggest names to miss out.
That's four of five qualification campaigns done and dusted, just leaving us with Europe.
That's four of five qualification campaigns done and dusted, just leaving us with Europe.
Biggest ranking climb: Grenada 129 (up 76)
Biggest ranking drop: Cuba 161 (down 28)
North American top 5
Biggest ranking drop: Cuba 161 (down 28)
North American top 5
- USA 12 (down 1)
- Mexico 18 (up 8)
- Canada 35 (n/c)
- Costa Rica 58 (n/c)
- Honduras 59 (up 17)