At the fourth time of asking, one of our groups has delivered an early qualifier! Mexico's second win is enough to ensure they will be in the knockout stages, but slip-ups for top seeds Scotland and Netherlands mean that those groups are looking like they will go to the wire:
Today's groups had tight opening games and we should expect something similar today. There is one big name involved - two-time winners France - and they are one of three teams who could qualify today, along with Czechia and UAE.
Group E
After the first round of games it's Czechia who lead the way, having come from behind to beat DR Congo. The top two seeds Colombia and Bulgaria played out an odd draw, leaving this group with everything to play for:
Czechia vs Colombia
Czechia were put under pressure by conceding early to the group's bottom seeds DR Congo, but a solo show from right back Lukás Masopust saw them come from behind and win. It's certainly not a disaster for Colombia to draw with Bulgaria, but they need to show why they are top seeds or they could get caught up in this difficult group.
Neither team make any changes to those used in their opening matches.
Czechia were put under pressure by conceding early to the group's bottom seeds DR Congo, but a solo show from right back Lukás Masopust saw them come from behind and win. It's certainly not a disaster for Colombia to draw with Bulgaria, but they need to show why they are top seeds or they could get caught up in this difficult group.
Neither team make any changes to those used in their opening matches.
Neither team is particularly willing to push the boat out, leading to a cagey opening. But a sloppy pass from Lukás Haraslín is intercepted by Jhon Córdoba, and immediately Juan Cuadrado sets off on an overlapping run down the right. Córdoba picks him out, Cuadrado plays it back to Yimmi Chará and his cross to the far post finds Luis Díaz free for a simple headed finish! A really well-worked goal! But VAR has a look and finds Díaz was offside!
Colombia aren't creating much, but when they do it's very surgical. Another such move leads to a sight of goal for Díaz, but he elects to play it out to Cuadrado whose shot is scuffed wide. I think Díaz would have been better shooting there.
As we enter the final ten minutes of the half Díaz plays a pass down the line towards Córdoba, but as he picks it up near the corner of the box with little support it doesn't seem like there's much danger. But Ladislav Krejcí is slow to get back in position, and Córdoba is able to turn inside Lukás Hejda, bear down on goal and slam his shot past Matej Kóvar! It's brilliant forward play and now Colombia have their lead! There's no further moments of note before the half time whistle.
Colombia aren't creating much, but when they do it's very surgical. Another such move leads to a sight of goal for Díaz, but he elects to play it out to Cuadrado whose shot is scuffed wide. I think Díaz would have been better shooting there.
As we enter the final ten minutes of the half Díaz plays a pass down the line towards Córdoba, but as he picks it up near the corner of the box with little support it doesn't seem like there's much danger. But Ladislav Krejcí is slow to get back in position, and Córdoba is able to turn inside Lukás Hejda, bear down on goal and slam his shot past Matej Kóvar! It's brilliant forward play and now Colombia have their lead! There's no further moments of note before the half time whistle.
Díaz has been much more involved today for Colombia than he was against Bulgaria. The issue for Czechia is that Masopust made himself undroppable against DR Congo, but is leaving a lot of space for Díaz. The solution is that Haraslín is sacrificed for right back Milan Havel, so Masopust can move up to the wing.
The match remains fairly sleep, but after ten minutes Córdoba picks up a pass 30 yards from goal and decides to have a pop. It's a sweet strike, and it nestles in the bottom corner! A brilliant strike out of nowhere! But the flag is up as Córdoba seemed to be coming back from an offside position... but VAR deems the goal good! And a good goal it certainly was! Colombia are well on top now, thanks to two moments of individual brilliance from Córdoba.
He's keen to get a hat trick, and a glanced header from a Cuadrado cross goes close. And that's... about it. Czechia try going more and more direct, eventually finishing with Jan Kuchta and Matej Vydra up alongside Patrik Schick, but they create - and this is the technical term - bugger all and in the end Colombia barely break sweat in seeing the victory through.
The match remains fairly sleep, but after ten minutes Córdoba picks up a pass 30 yards from goal and decides to have a pop. It's a sweet strike, and it nestles in the bottom corner! A brilliant strike out of nowhere! But the flag is up as Córdoba seemed to be coming back from an offside position... but VAR deems the goal good! And a good goal it certainly was! Colombia are well on top now, thanks to two moments of individual brilliance from Córdoba.
He's keen to get a hat trick, and a glanced header from a Cuadrado cross goes close. And that's... about it. Czechia try going more and more direct, eventually finishing with Jan Kuchta and Matej Vydra up alongside Patrik Schick, but they create - and this is the technical term - bugger all and in the end Colombia barely break sweat in seeing the victory through.
Final score:
Czechia 0
Colombia 2 (Córdoba 37', 56')
Player of the match: Jhon Córdoba (COL)
Colombia may have lost the xG battle below, but they were clearly the better team, with their disallowed goal not shown. Czechia were happier to shoot from range which boosted their numbers but didn't trouble Álvaro Montero. It is a bit ironic that Colombia scored with a rare shot of their own from range.
Czechia 0
Colombia 2 (Córdoba 37', 56')
Player of the match: Jhon Córdoba (COL)
Colombia may have lost the xG battle below, but they were clearly the better team, with their disallowed goal not shown. Czechia were happier to shoot from range which boosted their numbers but didn't trouble Álvaro Montero. It is a bit ironic that Colombia scored with a rare shot of their own from range.
Bulgaria vs DR Congo
If Bulgaria can get a win here, not only would they eliminated DR Congo, but they would get themselves ahead of Czechia before the two teams meet in a crunch final game, meaning they would just need a draw. DR Congo will of course have other ideas, and the fact they trail this group may have lead some to write them off. In Lukaku they have arguably the best player in this group, but they need to improve their service to him from their showing against Czechia.
It would be surprising were Bulgaria to ignore how they improved towards the end of their Colombian clash, and Kwadwo Duah duly replaces Bernard Tekpetey. DR Congo had the opposite issue, in that they faded against Czechia, and so their starting XI remains the same.
If Bulgaria can get a win here, not only would they eliminated DR Congo, but they would get themselves ahead of Czechia before the two teams meet in a crunch final game, meaning they would just need a draw. DR Congo will of course have other ideas, and the fact they trail this group may have lead some to write them off. In Lukaku they have arguably the best player in this group, but they need to improve their service to him from their showing against Czechia.
It would be surprising were Bulgaria to ignore how they improved towards the end of their Colombian clash, and Kwadwo Duah duly replaces Bernard Tekpetey. DR Congo had the opposite issue, in that they faded against Czechia, and so their starting XI remains the same.
It takes Duah a few minutes to pick up a knock, but he is okay to continue. Sebastián Villa shows a glimpse of his skill with a very neat turn into the box, but his powerful shot is wayward. Bulgaria also go close at the other end, as José Luis Palomino diverts a low Silas cross at goal, forcing Simon Sluga into a good reaction stop.
Sluga has to be on hand to deny Silas - DR Congo's goalscorer last time - and Moustapha Ava Dongo, whilst Simon Omossola shows quick footwork to stop Aslak Witry's low shot. It's been an entertaining match, and Iliya Gruev joins in with a pacy shot against the post from the edge of the box. But nobody is able to find a breakthrough before the interval. Bulgaria have been the better team for sure, but haven't exactly been blowing the door down. For now, DR Congo are keeping themselves in the tournament.
Sluga has to be on hand to deny Silas - DR Congo's goalscorer last time - and Moustapha Ava Dongo, whilst Simon Omossola shows quick footwork to stop Aslak Witry's low shot. It's been an entertaining match, and Iliya Gruev joins in with a pacy shot against the post from the edge of the box. But nobody is able to find a breakthrough before the interval. Bulgaria have been the better team for sure, but haven't exactly been blowing the door down. For now, DR Congo are keeping themselves in the tournament.
Bulgaria emerge for the second half with instructions to be more positive, but it's DR Congo who put together the first serious attack of the half. Ibrahima Keita clips a free kick down the line to Yannick Bolasie. He plays it inside to Serge Mukoko Tonombe, across to Stéphane Omeonga who plays it inside Witry into the path of Bolasie. He fizzes a cross over first time to Lukaku and he emphatically thumps it home! A brilliant, brilliant team goal... but VAR has a look and finds an offside! I'm meant to be impartial, but I am gutted that such a good goal has been taken away!
The game has a bit less zip than it did before the interval, and neither team seems to want to change things too much in case it backfires. As we enter the final 20 minutes Bulgaria work a move from left to right. Substitute Tobias Heintz picks the ball up on the edge of the D, waits a second and then plays a lovely pass out wide for the onrushing Witry, whose shot is towards Omassola but powerful enough that the keeper can't keep it out! There's no question of this being ruled out, and so it's Bulgaria who strike the first blow!
Now there's a little more freedom about Bulgaria, and just a few minutes later Heintz plays a free kick to Kiril Despodov, and his low shot from the edge of the box finds the bottom corner! It's looking pretty grim for the African champions now.
Two minutes later and Bulgaria surge forward again. Anton Nedyalkov crosses towards sub Michael Estrada, it's cleared by Atibu Radjabu but the referee decides Arthur Masuaku shoved Estrada and awards the penalty! Ivaylo Chochev is the man to take... and beats Omossola for pace to score Bulgaria's third goal in under 10 minutes!
A shellshocked DR Congo have no reply, and the game ends in an sadly illustrative fashion as Lukaku loses an aerial duel to Bulgaria's replacement left back José Córdoba before Joel Ngandu Kayamba accidentally runs it out of play.
The game has a bit less zip than it did before the interval, and neither team seems to want to change things too much in case it backfires. As we enter the final 20 minutes Bulgaria work a move from left to right. Substitute Tobias Heintz picks the ball up on the edge of the D, waits a second and then plays a lovely pass out wide for the onrushing Witry, whose shot is towards Omassola but powerful enough that the keeper can't keep it out! There's no question of this being ruled out, and so it's Bulgaria who strike the first blow!
Now there's a little more freedom about Bulgaria, and just a few minutes later Heintz plays a free kick to Kiril Despodov, and his low shot from the edge of the box finds the bottom corner! It's looking pretty grim for the African champions now.
Two minutes later and Bulgaria surge forward again. Anton Nedyalkov crosses towards sub Michael Estrada, it's cleared by Atibu Radjabu but the referee decides Arthur Masuaku shoved Estrada and awards the penalty! Ivaylo Chochev is the man to take... and beats Omossola for pace to score Bulgaria's third goal in under 10 minutes!
A shellshocked DR Congo have no reply, and the game ends in an sadly illustrative fashion as Lukaku loses an aerial duel to Bulgaria's replacement left back José Córdoba before Joel Ngandu Kayamba accidentally runs it out of play.
Final score:
Bulgaria 3 (Witry 71', Despodov 78', Chochev (p) 81')
DR Congo 0
Player of the match: Ivaylo Chochev (BUL)
Heartbreak for DR Congo, who at one point seemed to have gone ahead in a game of few chances. But two fairly low-quality shots yielded goals for Bulgaria, and the penalty put the gloss on the win. For a second time, Bulgaria finish strongly - and for a second time DR Congo let a match slip late on.
Bulgaria 3 (Witry 71', Despodov 78', Chochev (p) 81')
DR Congo 0
Player of the match: Ivaylo Chochev (BUL)
Heartbreak for DR Congo, who at one point seemed to have gone ahead in a game of few chances. But two fairly low-quality shots yielded goals for Bulgaria, and the penalty put the gloss on the win. For a second time, Bulgaria finish strongly - and for a second time DR Congo let a match slip late on.
DR Congo's elimination is confirmed. Whilst Colombia are only in second, they are in the strongest position to qualify as they finish against DR Congo. As appeared likely from the outset, the all-European tie could well be a winner-takes-all.
Group F
France utterly dominated Ecuador yet somehow only won 2-1, which means for now they trail UAE who were much more clinical in beating South Africa 3-1 in a fairly even match:
South Africa vs Ecuador
Fairly obviously, this is a must-win match for these two who lost their opening game. At least, it is for South Africa. For Ecuador a draw might be okay as long as France beat UAE as expected, because a win over UAE would see Ecuador through. The South Americans won their only previous encounter, in last year's Nations League.
South Africa change to a 4-2-3-1, and Thato Mokeke replaces Aubrey Modiba. Francisco Fydriszewski can consider himself unlucky not to start for Ecuador after scoring off the bench, but the original XI is given the chance to take on a less daunting opposition.
Fairly obviously, this is a must-win match for these two who lost their opening game. At least, it is for South Africa. For Ecuador a draw might be okay as long as France beat UAE as expected, because a win over UAE would see Ecuador through. The South Americans won their only previous encounter, in last year's Nations League.
South Africa change to a 4-2-3-1, and Thato Mokeke replaces Aubrey Modiba. Francisco Fydriszewski can consider himself unlucky not to start for Ecuador after scoring off the bench, but the original XI is given the chance to take on a less daunting opposition.
Straight from the kick off Marcelo Allende carves Ecuador open with a pass into the gaping hope between Romario Caicedo and Ricardo Adé for Percy Tau. He shoots from a difficult angle and Moisés Ramírez is able to tip it over. Three minutes later and Allende and Tau combine again, the latter having a shot from range parried again by Ramírez.
South Africa continue their strong start as Ecuador sit back. But a sloppy pass from Teboho Mokoena is intercepted by Felipe Caicedo, allowing him to run at South Africa's defence. They get back to cover, but Caicedo plays it wide to Junior Sornoza, who cuts inside Mokeke and beats Ronwen Williams at his near post! A clinically-taken goal from Ecuador, and last year's semi finalists' hopes are hanging by a thread now.
South Africa cannot get back into their rhythm, and the best they can manage for the rest of the half is a couple of blocked shots. But in the second minute of added time they build an attack, which comes out wide to Khuliso Mudau. He just elects for the classic full back play of getting to the byline and firing in a low cross, and Peter Shalulile is there to calmly side-foot it in and send the teams in level!
South Africa continue their strong start as Ecuador sit back. But a sloppy pass from Teboho Mokoena is intercepted by Felipe Caicedo, allowing him to run at South Africa's defence. They get back to cover, but Caicedo plays it wide to Junior Sornoza, who cuts inside Mokeke and beats Ronwen Williams at his near post! A clinically-taken goal from Ecuador, and last year's semi finalists' hopes are hanging by a thread now.
South Africa cannot get back into their rhythm, and the best they can manage for the rest of the half is a couple of blocked shots. But in the second minute of added time they build an attack, which comes out wide to Khuliso Mudau. He just elects for the classic full back play of getting to the byline and firing in a low cross, and Peter Shalulile is there to calmly side-foot it in and send the teams in level!
Felipe Caicedo heads over as Ecuador show South Africa they won't be going away in the second half. South Africa have more of the ball, and are largely able to stop the chances on the break. But they can't get through their opponents and the half trundles on without much action. Both teams make changes; Fydriszewski comes on, whilst South Africa bring on DWC veterans Rivaldo Coetzee and Khama Billiat.
As we enter the last quarter of an hour Ecuador sub Alexander Alvarado lays it back to Robert Arboleda, and he returns the favour with a gorgeous chip over the defence for Alvarado to run onto. From there it's a simple job to pick out the criminally unmarked Fydriszewski for a tap-in! Ecuador hit the front once more, and South Africa are running out of time.
They don't look like getting level at all, and Ecuador could have another late on when Arboleda and Alvarado team up again; the centre back laying it off for the winger at a corner, but his shot is straight at Williams. Straight after, Christian Noboa flicks a lovely pass over South Africa's back line, putting Fydriszewski clean through, but his shot zips wide.
From the goal kick South Africa finally work a chance, as the previously anomynous Lyle Foster plays a fine ball in behind for Billiat. It's a decent chance but his low shot is well wide of the far post! It's their last chance, and Ecuador secure a win in their first DWC!
As we enter the last quarter of an hour Ecuador sub Alexander Alvarado lays it back to Robert Arboleda, and he returns the favour with a gorgeous chip over the defence for Alvarado to run onto. From there it's a simple job to pick out the criminally unmarked Fydriszewski for a tap-in! Ecuador hit the front once more, and South Africa are running out of time.
They don't look like getting level at all, and Ecuador could have another late on when Arboleda and Alvarado team up again; the centre back laying it off for the winger at a corner, but his shot is straight at Williams. Straight after, Christian Noboa flicks a lovely pass over South Africa's back line, putting Fydriszewski clean through, but his shot zips wide.
From the goal kick South Africa finally work a chance, as the previously anomynous Lyle Foster plays a fine ball in behind for Billiat. It's a decent chance but his low shot is well wide of the far post! It's their last chance, and Ecuador secure a win in their first DWC!
Final score:
South Africa 1 (Shalulile 45+2')
Ecuador 2 (Sornoza 13', Fydriszewski 77')
Player of the match: Alexander Alvarado (ECU)
Just as against UAE, South Africa come out second-best in a close game. Maybe it's luck, but you also can point to a dearth of clear chances despite midfield superiority. But this is about Ecuador, who get their first DWC points and are right in the hunt for DWC qualification.
South Africa 1 (Shalulile 45+2')
Ecuador 2 (Sornoza 13', Fydriszewski 77')
Player of the match: Alexander Alvarado (ECU)
Just as against UAE, South Africa come out second-best in a close game. Maybe it's luck, but you also can point to a dearth of clear chances despite midfield superiority. But this is about Ecuador, who get their first DWC points and are right in the hunt for DWC qualification.
France vs UAE
South Africa's elimination will be confirmed if France avoid defeat here, and if they win then they will secure their knockout spot. For UAE, their minimum aim here will be to avoid a three-goal defeat - if that happens they will go below Ecuador on goal difference ahead of their final-round game.
It was a mystery how France didn't score another few against Ecuador, and so they see no need to chop and change. UAE are also unchanged, despite the temptation to adopt a more defensive set-up against such a dangerous opponent.
South Africa's elimination will be confirmed if France avoid defeat here, and if they win then they will secure their knockout spot. For UAE, their minimum aim here will be to avoid a three-goal defeat - if that happens they will go below Ecuador on goal difference ahead of their final-round game.
It was a mystery how France didn't score another few against Ecuador, and so they see no need to chop and change. UAE are also unchanged, despite the temptation to adopt a more defensive set-up against such a dangerous opponent.
The most notable performance against Ecuador for France was Marco Asensio. He ran the show but also somehow failed to score despite numerous chances. He has an early one here after outpacing Alexis Pérez but his shot is straight at Khalid Eisa. UAE utilise the Pjanic-Planic duo, as Miralem's free kick is header narrowly over by Bogdan. France had a set piece header over too, Raphael Varane from a corner.
In the 17th minute France have UAE pushed back, and Pjanic belies his ability with a poor crossfield pass that invites more pressure. Varane plays it down the line for Ousmane Dembélé. He plays it to Marquinhos and darts part a sluggish Karim Rekik to receive the return ball. Through on goal but with Eisa and Pérez bearing down on him, Dembélé goes for the delicate chip and pulls it off! An elegant finish to fire France ahead!
Iuri Medeiros has a go at scoring a brilliant goal of his own, as he turns two players and dribbles inside, but his curling shot doesn't have enough power on it and it's an easy claim for Gianluigi Donnarumma. But on the half hour mark UAE hand France the chance for second. Again, there's a loose pass from Pjanic. UAE defend the resulting cross, but Allan trips Asensio and it's a penalty! Kylian Mbappé, uncharacteristically quiet so far, has the chance to get his second of the tournament - one that would put him outright second on the all-time scorer list. He goes for power, Eisa guesses right but can't reach it... but it hits the post, hits Eisa and stays out! There's a little shout for a penalty as Mbappé goes for the follow-up, but no dice.
There's litle other action for the rest of the half. France lead 1-0, which in a way both teams will be reasonably happy with.
In the 17th minute France have UAE pushed back, and Pjanic belies his ability with a poor crossfield pass that invites more pressure. Varane plays it down the line for Ousmane Dembélé. He plays it to Marquinhos and darts part a sluggish Karim Rekik to receive the return ball. Through on goal but with Eisa and Pérez bearing down on him, Dembélé goes for the delicate chip and pulls it off! An elegant finish to fire France ahead!
Iuri Medeiros has a go at scoring a brilliant goal of his own, as he turns two players and dribbles inside, but his curling shot doesn't have enough power on it and it's an easy claim for Gianluigi Donnarumma. But on the half hour mark UAE hand France the chance for second. Again, there's a loose pass from Pjanic. UAE defend the resulting cross, but Allan trips Asensio and it's a penalty! Kylian Mbappé, uncharacteristically quiet so far, has the chance to get his second of the tournament - one that would put him outright second on the all-time scorer list. He goes for power, Eisa guesses right but can't reach it... but it hits the post, hits Eisa and stays out! There's a little shout for a penalty as Mbappé goes for the follow-up, but no dice.
There's litle other action for the rest of the half. France lead 1-0, which in a way both teams will be reasonably happy with.
Early in the second half Medeiros exhibits another fine turn into space, this time his shot is better but Donnarumma is able to push it behind for a corner. It's a fairly bright start from UAE, who also have a Pjanic free kick deflected just over. But France remain dangerous, with Asensio again having a shot saved.
We pass the hour mark with UAE doing a reasonable job of holding firm whilst not ceding any attacking threat. But just like that, France do get their second goal. It's just a simple corner - Mbappé hits it to the far post, where the outstanding Varane climbs highest to get his header past Eisa. At 2-0, it leaves UAE tied dead level with Ecuador as it stands.
A few minutes later France have another corner. UAE clear it, but sub Randal Kolo Muani salvages the ball, Dembélé plays it to the original taker Asensio, and he finally gets his first DWC goal with a shot curled around Eisa! Great news for Ecuador (less so for South Africa), and now UAE have a decision to make about how they go about the rest of this match.
The elect to take off key players - such as Rekik, a yellow away from suspension - ahead of the crunch Ecuador meeting. France also make changes, and the game inevitably lulls. But the French subs want to show what they can do, and with five minutes to go Martin Terrier wins a header to set Alexandr Golovin up from the edge of the box, and it flies in! A lovely strike, and the cake is very much iced!
It could still do with a cherry on it, but Varane's header in stoppage time is over, and so is the match.
We pass the hour mark with UAE doing a reasonable job of holding firm whilst not ceding any attacking threat. But just like that, France do get their second goal. It's just a simple corner - Mbappé hits it to the far post, where the outstanding Varane climbs highest to get his header past Eisa. At 2-0, it leaves UAE tied dead level with Ecuador as it stands.
A few minutes later France have another corner. UAE clear it, but sub Randal Kolo Muani salvages the ball, Dembélé plays it to the original taker Asensio, and he finally gets his first DWC goal with a shot curled around Eisa! Great news for Ecuador (less so for South Africa), and now UAE have a decision to make about how they go about the rest of this match.
The elect to take off key players - such as Rekik, a yellow away from suspension - ahead of the crunch Ecuador meeting. France also make changes, and the game inevitably lulls. But the French subs want to show what they can do, and with five minutes to go Martin Terrier wins a header to set Alexandr Golovin up from the edge of the box, and it flies in! A lovely strike, and the cake is very much iced!
It could still do with a cherry on it, but Varane's header in stoppage time is over, and so is the match.
Final score:
France 4 (Dembélé 17', Varane 63', Asensio 67', Golovin 85')
UAE 0
Player of the match: Raphael Varane (FRA)
In the end, it was domination from France. I do think UAE were executing their game plan pretty well - they had 67% possession and penalty aside had only conceded one big chance before the flurry of second half goals - but in the end France make it look easy.
France 4 (Dembélé 17', Varane 63', Asensio 67', Golovin 85')
UAE 0
Player of the match: Raphael Varane (FRA)
In the end, it was domination from France. I do think UAE were executing their game plan pretty well - they had 67% possession and penalty aside had only conceded one big chance before the flurry of second half goals - but in the end France make it look easy.
DR Congo and South Africa are the only sides eliminated so far, and it's looking like a tough DWC for the African sides. But today's two groups are set up for grandstand finishes.
Our final two groups are next, will they be plain sailing for the big names?
Our final two groups are next, will they be plain sailing for the big names?